Today's Dogs

Yesterday was good - 2/3, all away teams at odds of 4.4 and 6.4

Tonights dogs are:

FC Wacker 2.9
Everton 3.1
GBA 3.15
Metz 3.3
Roda 2.94
Hertha Berlin 3.4
Werder Bremen 3.95
Hansa Rostock 3.05
ICT 2.94
Luzern 3.55

Underdogs Friday, August 17, 2007

Last night sucked. Home dogs suck and so do cups. Tonights selections, just ctrl+f if u can't find the game, can't be fucked typing it all out

Grenoble
Dijon
Libourne

Lassies Thursday, August 16, 2007

Rotherham v Sheffield Wednesday - Take Rotherham, CS only

Underdogs Thursday, August 16, 2007

Flying the Flag For Finland [and Svenska]

IFK Mariehahm v FC Honka Espoo - FC Honka Espoo @ 2.82
FC Haka v FC Midjtylland - FC Haka @ 2.96
Dunfermline Athletic v Hacken - Hacken @ 4.2

Underdogs Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Portsmouth v Manchester United - Portsmouth @ 6.4
Wigan Athletic v Middlesbrough - Middlesbrough @ 3.35
Valenciennes v Marseille - Valenciennes @ 3.4
Paris St-Germain v Lorient - Lorient @ 6.6
Crewe v Hull - Crewe @ 2.65 (Centrebet)

Results for August 14, 2007

Absolutely disastrous is the only way to explain that. Funnily enough the only Championship sides that went down in normal time were all at home. 2 from 24 on the home dogs - I honestly don't know what to say about that.

Lassies Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Take all HOME TEAMS. Correct score market ONLY. Do NOT play Match Odds market.

Bristol Rovers v Crystal Palace
Milton Keynes Dons v Ipswich Town
Rochdale v Stoke
Swindon Town v Charlton Athletic

Underdogs Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Take all the HOME TEAMS, they are listed first. All bets are with Betfair, fetch your own prices!

Accrington Stanley v Leicester City
Brentford v Bristol City
Grimsby Town v Burnley
Shrewsbury Town v Colchester United

PS - Brentford was decided upon by Matt. If they lose, it's his fault.
PPS - I idenitified Brentford, if they win, it was all me.

New System Variant

Tonight I will introduce a new variant of the Kennel that will apply only for the next 3 days. It will only apply for Round 1 of the Carling Cup each season and so after Thursday it will not be seen again til next year. This variant is to be known as Lassie's Home Brew. This is because only home teams will be taken, only in the Carling Cup - Carling being a brewer and UK's biggest lager producer. Lassie is obviously a continuation of the dog theme, but is also female. These particular dogs will be in divisions lower than the favourite, making them generally weak and useless, much like a female...

Results for August 14, 2007

Absolute Shite. Viborg led but got pulled back in the 2nd half to draw 1-1. That is the 3rd time this has happened so far.

Also, from our 37 bets, 17 have been at home. Of those, just two have won,

Underdogs Monday, August 13, 2007

KooTeePee Kotka v FC Honka Espoo-KooTeePee Kotka @ 3.3
Viborg v Brondby-Viborg @ 3.5 [Bet365]

Just the two today, and both home teams...........

Results for August 12, 2007

3/7 today, including a correct score win that paid 44s (Helsingborgs). Saturn won at 4.4, whilst Lille also won at 3.4, giving us a nice profitable day in the match odds department that is much needed.

FYI, of the 9 wins we have had on the match odds front (from 35 bets), 8 of them have been the away team. That, I must say, is very unexpected.

Underdogs Sunday, August 12, 2007

Here are today's picks, again a messy format but it's too much hassle for me to make it now on this shitty little site. Not my problem anyway :P

Metz v Lille-Lille @ 3.4
Rubin Kazan v Saturn-Saturn @ 4.4
Germinal Beerschot v Club Brugge-Germinal Beerschot @ 3.05
GAIS Goteberg v Helsingborgs-Helsingborgs @ 2.6 [Bet365]
Lyn Oslo v Lillestrom SK-Lyn Oslo @ 2.88
Legia Warsaw v Dyskobolia Grodzisk-Dyskobolia Grodzisk @ 6.4
FC Luzen v Grasshoppers Zurich-FC Luzern @ 3.05

Results for August 11, 2007

3 out of 10 for the day and a minor profit on the match odds front. Citizens won 2-0 which paid 26s to also give us a minor profit on that front too. Must say though I neglected to correctly identify Newcastle United and Toulouse as underdogs and must do better in future.

Underdogs Saturday, August 11, 2007

Trying to get these picks up faster so just trying to get them in via an excel output atm. If you don't like it, too bad :P

Middlesbrough v Blackburn Rovers [Blackburn @ 3]
West Ham Utd. v Manchester City [City @ 3.95]
Bayer Leverkusen v Energie Cottbus [Cottbus @ 6.8]
Motherwell FC v Inverness CT [Inverness @ 3.7]
Falkirk v Celtic [Falkirk @ 8.4 - I hope they win 3-0 Matt]
Lokomotiv Moscow v Spartak Nilchik [Spartak Nilchik @ 8.6]
KAA Gent v KRC Genk [KRC Genk @ 3.3]
Kalmar FF v IFK Goteburg [IFK Goteburg @ 3.55 - Centrebet!!]
Austria Karnten v SV Mattersburg [Austria Karnten @ 3.2]
SK Brann Bergen v Rosenborg BK [Rosenborg @ 3 - Centrebet!!]

Underdogs Friday August 10, 2007

Two for tonight:

LEAGUE: Irish Eircom
TEAMS: Waterford Utd v Shamrock Rovers
SELECTION: Waterford Utd
WIN ODDS: 3.75
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Won 3 of past 5 clashes when hosting Shamrock

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/waterford-united-fc/shamrock-rovers-football-club/442785/

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LEAGUE: French Ligue 2
TEAMS: Chamois Niortais v Sedan Ardennes
SELECTION: Chamois Niortais
WIN ODDS: 2.96
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: First time going into a national 2nd league

http://www.soccerway.com/match/ligue-2/chamois-niortais-football-club/club-sportif-sedan-ardennes/461789/

Results for August 9, 2007

A happy little trip into Finland with Haka winning 3-0 (paid 50s). I hope you got on Mr. Matt. Speaking of which, what's the dealio with my punt club money? Haven't seen you around lately!

PS - I hope to one day in the not too distant future purchase a domain to put all this stuff on, as this blogger thing is kinda annoying.

Underdogs Thursday, August 9, 2007

From now on in I will not bother posting 2-0 and 3-0 odds. You already know they are to be taken!

LEAGUE: Finnish Veikkausliiga
TEAMS: MyPa Anjalankoski v Haka Valkeakoski
SELECTION: Haka Valkeakoski
WIN ODDS: 3.1
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Haka won their past 4 games when visiting MyPa. This fixture dominated by wins to the away team.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/veikkausliiga/myllykosken-pallo-1947/football-club-haka-valkeakoski/432630/

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LEAGUE: Finnish Veikkausliiga
TEAMS: Jaro v HJK Helsinki
SELECTION: Jaro
WIN ODDS: 5*
CRITERIA: H2H (1/2), HJK drew last league game at home
NOTES: Not a fan of this one but playing the good odds/home advantage aspect of the game. Type of game that in a few months time will be very interesting to analyze.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/veikkausliiga/ff-jaro-js-pietarsaari--jakobstad/helsingin-jalkapallokubi/432629/

Dogged Again

There will again be no bets today. Look out for Saturday where a number of strong looking bets will be available.

Vaccination Today

Today the kennel is empty. Our dogs are out being vaccinated against last minute equalisers and so there are no bets today.

Results for August 6, 2007

Our only Dog couldn't quite stay ahead today. Led 1-0 til the last third of the game when Djurgardens equalised. That gives us just 4 match bet winners from 15 games. Probably a little below the strike rate needed to make it profitable so an improvement on that front will hopefully be seen soon. The Longford Town 3-0 result has us somewhat comfortable for the time being, though more winners will be needed soon.

Underdogs Monday, August 6, 2007

Just one bet today and that is in the Swedish Allsvenskan

LEAGUE: Swedish Allsvenskan
TEAMS: GAIS Goteborg v Djurgradens
SELECTION: GAIS Goteborg
WIN ODDS: 3.2
2-0 ODDS: 20
3-0 ODDS: 60
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: GAIS won last 2 H2H, though both those games Djurgardens hosted. Home advantage is generally preferable though so hopefully that bodes well for tonight's hosts.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/allsvenskan/gteborgs-atlet---ildrottssllskap/djurgrdens-fotbollsfrening/429564/

Results for August 5, 2007

Only one winner I'm afraid, KAA Gent, which only paid 2.76 in the end. A couple of draws including Spartak Nilchik's 1-1 home draw to CSKA. A victory there would have had us nicely in profit but it wasn't to be.

Underdogs Sunday, August 5, 2007

LEAGUE: English Charity Shield
TEAMS: Chelsea (N) v Manchester United (N)
SELECTION: Chelsea
WIN ODDS: 2.90 [Centrebet]
2-0 ODDS: 19
3-0 ODDS: 60*
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Slightly discretional bet as last 3 H2H have been draws but good value for a class team.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/super-cup/manchester-united/chelsea-football-club/462622/

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LEAGUE: Russian Premier
TEAMS: FC Moscow v Rubin Kazan
SELECTION: Rubin Kazan
WIN ODDS: 5.2
2-0 ODDS: 38
3-0 ODDS: 140
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Rubin Kazan won last 2 away games against FC Moscow

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/fk-moskva/rubin-kazan/422108/

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LEAGUE: Russian Premier
TEAMS: Spartak Nilchik v CSKA Moscow
SELECTION: Spartak Nilchik
WIN ODDS: 4.3
2-0 ODDS: 28
3-0 ODDS: 90
CRITERIA: Seasonal Venue Records, CSKA drew last league at home
NOTES: Different Criteria for this one. Spartak good at home this season, CSKA are poor away this season and drew their last game at home (if they drew it away its far less significant).
Also should be noted that the H2H record is very shit for Spartak Nilchik

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/spartak-nalchik/cska-moskva/422109/

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LEAGUE: Austrian T-Mobile Bundesliga
TEAMS: LASK Linz v SV Reid
SELECTION: SV Reid
WIN ODDS: 3.2
2-0 ODDS: 20
3-0 ODDS: 55
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: SV Reid won 3 of last 4 H2H, LASK Linz lost last 2 league games, albeit away

http://www.soccerway.com/match/t-mobile-bundesliga/lask-linz/sv-josko-ried/462362/

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LEAGUE: Belgian Jupiler League
TEAMS: Zulte-Waregem v Standard Liege
SELECTION: Zulte-Waregem
WIN ODDS: 3.51
2-0 ODDS: Illiquid
3-0 ODDS: Illiqud
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Zulte won 3 of last 5, including last meeting which they hosted and won 3-1.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/jupiler-league/sv-zulte-waregem/standard-de-lige/462696/

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LEAGUE: Belgian Jupiler League
TEAMS: Excelsior Mouscron v KAA Gent
SELECTION: KAA Gent
WIN ODDS: 3*
2-0 ODDS: Illiquid
3-0 ODDS: Illiquid
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Gent won the last 4 games in which they were away to Mouscron.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/jupiler-league/excelsior-de-mouscron/koninklijke-atletiek-associatie-gent/462701/

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*Indicates unmatched price at time of posting

Nb - All odds are Betfair unless indicated otherwise

Results for August 4, 2007

SUCCESS!!!

3 match odds winners today. Westerlo won 1-0 @ 3.00, Dundee Utd won 1-0 @ 2.94 with a 90th minute goal, but to top it all off, Longford Town won 3-0 @ 3.75, with the correct score of 3-0 paying 100s!!!! :)

Elsewhere Strasbourg drew with Marseille, Sturm Graz also drew whilst Inverness CT and Zenit St. Petersburg both went down.

Underdogs Saturday August 4, 2007

LEAGUE: Austrian T-Mobile Bundesliga
TEAMS: Sturm Graz v Salzburg
SELECTION: Sturm Graz
WIN ODDS: 3.45
2-0 ODDS: 26
3-0 ODDS: 65*
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Sturm have won 4 of past 6 home matches against Salzburg

http://www.soccerway.com/match/t-mobile-bundesliga/sk-puntigamer-sturm-graz/red-bull-salzburg/462363/

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LEAGUE: Belgian Jupiler League
TEAMS: FC Molenbeek Brussels v Westerlo
SELECTION: Westerlo
WIN ODDS: 3.00 [Sportingbet]
2-0 ODDS: Illiquid Market at time of posting
3-0 ODDS: Illiquid Market at time of posting
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Westerlo won 4 of last 6 H2H, 2 of last 3 when away.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/jupiler-league/fc-molenbeek-brussels-strombeek/kvc-westerlo/462700/

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LEAGUE: Scottish Premier League
TEAMS: Inverness CT v Rangers
SELECTION: Inverness CT
WIN ODDS: 8.20
2-0 ODDS: 55
3-0 ODDS: 200
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Inverness won 2 of past 3. Correct Score odds for this game were matched prior to this posting and have since drifted. I jumped too early on this one :(

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/inverness-caledonian-thistle-fc/glasgow-rangers/458958/

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LEAGUE: Scottish Premier League
TEAMS: Dundee Utd v Aberdeen
SELECTION: Dundee Utd
WIN ODDS: 2.94
2-0 ODDS: 18
3-0 ODDS: 48
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Dundee won last 2 vs Aberdeen. Dubious game but first game of season and Dundee have home advantage as well as H2H momentum. Things to consider when analyzing the soundness of this bet are the odds of the dog, home advantage and the fact its a new season.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/dundee-united/aberdeen-fc/458955/

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LEAGUE: French Ligue 1
TEAMS: Racing Strasbourg v Marseille
SELECTION: Racing Strasbourg
WIN ODDS: 3.85
2-0 ODDS: 23
3-0 ODDS: 65
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Racing won 2 of past 3 home games against Marseille. H2H information is slightly dated.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/ligue-1/racing-club-de-strasbourg/olympique-de-marseille/461389/

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LEAGUE: Irish Eircom League
TEAMS: Longford Town v Bohemians
SELECTION: Longford Town
WIN ODDS: 3.75 (Centrebet)
2-0 ODDS: Illiquid Market
3-0 ODDS: Illiquid Market
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Longford Town won 4 of past 6 and last 3 at home to Bohemians.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/longford-town-football-club/bohemian-football-club/442780/

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LEAGUE: Russian Premier League
TEAMS: Dinamo Moscow v Zenit St. Petersburg
SELECTION: Zenit St. Petersburg
WIN ODDS: 2.92
2-0 ODDS: 19.5
3-0 ODDS: 50
CRITERIA: H2H
NOTES: Zenit won 5 of last 7 and 2 of the last 3 away to Dinamo Moscow.

http://www.soccerway.com/match/premier-league/fk-dinamo-moskva/fk-zenit-sankt-petersburg/422103/

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*Indicates unmatched price at time of posting

Nb - All odds are Betfair unless indicated otherwise

Criteria

A quick rundown of the criteria used and a tiny bit of the logic behind it.

+First and foremost, the team must be dogs. (No explanation needed really)
+Best premise is H2H, but location is important. If a dog has beaten opponent 10 of the last 20 times, but all times at home, but are now away, then ignore. There is no advantage in being away and venue record there is 0%. However if that team was at home and had their 10 wins away from home, then take that team. (HOME ADVANTAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT FACTOR).
----H2H Strength is a compulsive criteria - if it fits it's a must bet----

+Last League Game Result of favourite (Anywhere/H/A). The result of the favourite's last game is important. Some favourites are often made so on reputation more so than form (i.e. Arsenal in away games last season). This is a very unrefined premise but a lot of the backfitting results has been off the back of selecting the dog due to their opponent having lost or drew their last league. Location too can be important (i.e. if fav won last game but lost last away game and are away this game that's an applicable criteria (the game can be taken but is down to discretion, namely my (poor) judgement)

+Injuries - This only applies to favourites. If a team is resting a lot of players for an upcoming game or has an injury crisis then this is a discretional criteria. For the most part, injury news should only be considered for opposing favourites, not ignoring dogs.

Welcome

I will try to put here all dog picks for this season, as well as the foundations for selection so that criteria can be reviewed to improve efficiency of the system in future.